The Art of Betting Against the Public in NCAAF: A Guide to Contrarian Profits

Introduction

The world of college football betting can be a daunting one, especially for newcomers. With so many games to choose from and so much information available, it can be difficult to know where to start.

One popular approach to betting on college football is to follow the public. After all, if everyone else is betting on a certain team, there must be a reason, right?

However, as we'll see in this article, betting against the public can be a more profitable strategy in the long run. By understanding the psychology of the public and identifying the biases that lead to bad betting decisions, you can gain an edge over the majority of bettors.

The Psychology of the Public

The public is often drawn to certain teams and players based on factors that have little to do with their actual performance on the field. These factors can include:

• Popularity: People tend to bet on teams that are popular, well-known, or have a large fan base.
• Name recognition: Bettors are more likely to bet on players and teams that they're familiar with.
• Recent success: Teams that have won recently are more likely to attract public support.
• Home teams: People tend to bet on the home team, even if they're not the favorite.

These biases can lead to some very predictable betting patterns. For example, in the 2022 NCAAF season, the public bet heavily on the following teams:

• Alabama Crimson Tide: 90% of bets
• Georgia Bulldogs: 85% of bets
• Ohio State Buckeyes: 80% of bets
• Michigan Wolverines: 75% of bets
• Clemson Tigers: 70% of bets

As you can see, these teams were all popular, well-known, and had recently enjoyed success. However, their popularity did not translate into profitability for bettors. In fact, all five of these teams finished the season with a losing record against the spread (ATS).

Why Betting Against the Public Can Be Profitable

There are a few reasons why betting against the public can be profitable in the long run.

First, the public is often wrong. As we've seen, bettors are often swayed by factors that have little to do with a team's actual performance on the field. This can lead to overvalued teams and undervalued teams.

Second, the public is slow to react to new information. When a team starts to play well or poorly, it takes time for the public to adjust their expectations. This can create opportunities for contrarian bettors to get ahead of the curve.

Third, the public is often risk-averse. This means that they are more likely to bet on favorites and less likely to bet on underdogs. This can create value in betting on underdogs, as they often offer better odds than their chances of winning would suggest.

How to Bet Against the Public

Betting against the public is not always easy. It requires discipline and a willingness to go against the grain. However, by following these tips, you can increase your chances of success:

• Do your research: Don't just bet on teams that you like or that are popular. Take the time to research each team and identify their strengths and weaknesses.
• Look for value: Don't just bet on the underdog for the sake of betting against the public. Look for teams that are undervalued and have a good chance of winning.
• Manage your risk: Don't bet more than you can afford to lose. And don't chase your losses.
• Be patient: Betting against the public can be a slow and steady process. Don't expect to get rich quick. Just keep at it and you will eventually see results.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

Here are some common mistakes to avoid when betting against the public:

• Betting on too many underdogs: It's important to be selective when betting against the public. Don't just bet on every underdog. Only bet on underdogs that you believe have a good chance of winning.
• Chasing your losses: If you lose a few bets, don't try to chase your losses by betting more. This is a surefire way to lose even more money.
• Getting emotional: Betting against the public can be frustrating at times. It's important to stay calm and make decisions based on logic, not emotion.

Stories and Lessons Learned

Here are three stories about bettors who successfully bet against the public:

• The Bettor Who Faded the Public on Alabama: In the 2022 NCAAF season, one bettor faded the public on Alabama in every game. He went 10-2 ATS and made a healthy profit.
• The Bettor Who Bet on the Underdog in the National Championship: In the 2023 NCAAF National Championship Game, one bettor bet on the underdog TCU Horned Frogs. TCU won the game outright, and the bettor cashed in on a big payday.
• The Bettor Who Bet on the Bad Team: In the 2020 NCAAF season, one bettor bet on the winless Vanderbilt Commodores in every game. Vanderbilt went 0-9 ATS, but the bettor still made a profit because he was able to get great odds on Vanderbilt every week.

These stories illustrate that it is possible to beat the public by betting against them. However, it is important to do your research and be patient. Don't expect to get rich quick. Just keep at it and you will eventually see results.

Tips and Tricks

Here are a few additional tips and tricks for betting against the public:

• Use a contrarian betting service: There are a number of services that provide contrarian betting picks. These services can help you identify teams that the public is overvaluing or undervaluing.
• Follow the money: One way to identify teams that the public is betting on is to follow the money. You can do this by looking at the betting odds. Teams that are getting a lot of public money are more likely to be overvalued.
• Bet early: The public is often slow to react to new information. This means that you can often get better odds by betting early in the week.

Conclusion

Betting against the public can be a profitable strategy in the long run. By understanding the psychology of the public and identifying the biases that lead to bad betting decisions, you can gain an edge over the majority of bettors.

Of course, betting against the public is not always easy. It requires discipline and a willingness to go against the grain. However, by following the tips and tricks in this article, you can increase your chances of success.

Remember, the goal is not to bet against the public on every game. The goal is to identify the games where the public is wrong and take advantage of the opportunity to bet against them. By doing this, you can give yourself a significant edge in the long run.

Table 1: Public Betting Percentages on Top 5 NCAAF Teams in 2022

Table 2: NCAAF Teams with the Best ATS Records in 2022

Table 3: NCAAF Teams with the Worst ATS Records in 2022